A New Direction in French Politics: The National Coalition’s Rise and Implications for Europe

In the upcoming first round of early parliamentary elections, the French will be casting their votes. This election was called by President Emmanuel Macron following the results of the European elections. According to a recent poll by Ifop Fiducial’s Gallup, the extreme-right National Coalition led by Marine Le Pen is projected to receive 36 percent support. The center-left and green coalition is in second place with 28 percent, while Macron’s center-right coalition is in third with about 20 percent.

Mujtaba Rahman, a specialist in European politics at the Eurasia Group Research, predicts that the National Coalition will become the largest group in the French National Assembly, a first in French history. The coalition’s attitudes towards Russia and Europe have raised concerns, with Marine Le Pen promising to hold a referendum on the primacy of the French constitution over European law. If they come to power, they may steer European politics in a different direction, potentially impacting French support for Ukraine.

To advance to the second round, candidates must receive at least 12.5 percent of the votes in their constituency. Jordan Bardella, a protégé of Marine Le Pen and a member of her National Coalition party, is currently leading in