Iran’s Political Future at Stake: Will Low Voter Turnout Swing the Election in Favor of Conservatives?

On July 5th, Iran will hold its second round of presidential elections. These elections were triggered by the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash on May 19th. In the first round held on June 28th, two candidates emerged victorious. Masoud Pezeshkian, who was considered a reformer, received approximately 42% of the votes while conservative Said Jalili, the spiritual leader’s representative in the Security Council of the Islamic Republic, received approximately 39% of the votes. The official turnout for this round was recorded at 40%, which is the lowest in Iran’s history.

However, there were concerns raised by Iranian opposition regarding the accuracy of the official turnout data. Some analysts believe that it could have been three times lower than what was reported. With Jalili having a better chance in the second round since voters who supported other conservative politicians in the first round have no other candidate to back, voter turnout will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Pezeshkian’s strong showing in the first round may have encouraged voters who were inclined to vote for him.

In reality, although President Raisi is formally considered Iran’s head of state, it is Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, who governs Iran. The second round of these elections will determine Iran’s future leadership direction and shape its political future.

The election results will heavily depend on voter turnout as Jalili has a better chance to win if fewer people vote.

Pezeshkian’s strong performance in Round one could encourage more people to vote for him.

Despite being considered an election victory for Pezeshkian and Jalili respectively, doubts raised by opposition regarding official turnout data need further investigation.

The Islamic Republic government should be transparent about their voting process so that they can build trust among citizens and maintain their legitimacy as leaders.

Iranians need to exercise their right to vote with caution and make sure they are aware of all their options before casting their ballot.

In conclusion, this election season marks an important moment for Iran as it determines its next president and shapes its future leadership direction.