Rising Tensions on Israel’s Northern Border: The Threat to Egypt’s Energy Security

As tensions rise on Israel’s northern border, there is growing concern about the potential for damage to its strategic infrastructure. One of the key targets expected to be hit by Hezbollah’s rockets, missiles, and UAVs are Israel’s gas rigs. Unlike other critical infrastructures, if these rigs shut down completely, it would not just harm Israel but also Egypt.

Egypt has been increasing its gas imports from Israel since 2020. In 2023, Egypt imported 8.6 BCM of Israeli gas, with Israel consuming 13.1 BCM and the remaining 2.9 BCM going to Jordan. However, Egypt is currently facing a severe shortage of electricity due to poor activity in its natural gas field. The Zohar natural gas field, located in Egypt’s economic waters, has seen a significant decrease in proven reserves from approximately 1,000 BCM to around 350 BCM due to issues with sulfur saturation and corrosiveness that have damaged production infrastructure.

If an all-out war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, it is likely that there will be a complete halt in gas production from Israeli fields to protect them from potential missile attacks. This could have serious implications for Egypt as well as it heavily relies on gas imports from Israel to meet its energy needs. The shortage of gas in Egypt has already led to frequent power outages affecting the everyday lives of its citizens.

To address this issue, the Egyptian government has implemented various measures such as daily electricity allowance plans and power outages but they have not been sufficient to meet the growing energy demand in the country. In case of a complete halt in gas exports from Israel, Egypt would face significant economic challenges that could potentially impact key sectors such as petrochemical and textile industries which rely heavily on stable energy supply for their operations